We Share Science

The Gestational Prediction Project: A model for determining probable fetal counts in early pregnancy without ultrasound technology: The Gestational Prediction Project (GPP) is a long-term study being conducted on the relationship between beta human Chorionic Gonadotropin (beta-hCG) and the number of fetuses in gestation. In this project, a calculator is designed to predict the number of fetuses in a pregnancy at 4 weeks gestation, two weeks before ultrasound is able to detect a viable pregnancy. Folic acid is critical at 5 weeks gestation to prevent neural tube defects (NTDs), and women carrying more than one fetus require additional supplementation. Using a mathematical model, this will be a novel way for medical providers to provide early detection of these pregnancies and offer earlier treatment options to improve fetal outcome. Using a secure server to collect anonymous beta-hCG sets from volunteers, we are developing a dataset of beta-hCG values associated with singleton, twin, and triplet pregnancies. Through data analysis we have developed a mathematical model to determine the probability of fetal counts for individuals with a set of beta-hCG values. We used Java to develop a calculator that predicts the probability of an individual carrying multiples based on their unique beta-hCG values. It is our hope that medical providers will use this tool to provide patients with higher multiple probabilities additional folic acid to prevent the incidence of NTDs.