0:00:00 | so we are today with vector you are combined co was a professor of physics |
---|
0:00:04 | at the university of marilyn and also one of our grantees most recent grantees for |
---|
0:00:09 | very interesting project called statistical physics approach to income and wealth distribution were compared to |
---|
0:00:15 | thank you |
---|
0:00:17 | so i just read your proposal and refresh my memory of this and so this |
---|
0:00:22 | is basically a kind of physics yes that's gonna start value s and just before |
---|
0:00:25 | we started talking you said it's basically money is a gas okay so that the |
---|
0:00:30 | this is a joke so we just translate is from my understanding |
---|
0:00:35 | you're thinking about the distribution of well as we shouldn't come up in the same |
---|
0:00:39 | way that you think about the distribution of energy states in a gas and you |
---|
0:00:44 | know in a confined in our |
---|
0:00:45 | yes i get this idea actually quite a long time ago all in fact when |
---|
0:00:50 | i was undergraduate that wasn't so it you know |
---|
0:00:53 | and i was three the statistical physics for the first time that x local statistical |
---|
0:00:56 | theory for the first time and i was deeply impressed that the duration of this |
---|
0:01:02 | fundamental the low statistical physics recyclables one gives distribution |
---|
0:01:06 | is also present a simple was based on very few assumptions so essentially multimodal problem |
---|
0:01:11 | we consider the physics of the fallen suppose we consider aaron this rule so that |
---|
0:01:14 | more tickles moving around |
---|
0:01:16 | and now which is that more equal say with the same time to oxygen wanted |
---|
0:01:19 | to the exactly the same identical |
---|
0:01:21 | and yet if you measure instantaneous the distribution of the and that's just and this |
---|
0:01:25 | experiments have been done |
---|
0:01:26 | you find a very broad distribution |
---|
0:01:28 | in experiment that has a high energy that's moving fast that's right some a low |
---|
0:01:33 | energy i think there is like absolutely some model system articles move very fast to |
---|
0:01:38 | verify kinetic energy and some of the movement with a slower and everything between but |
---|
0:01:42 | what is important is this but that a few works as you more details that |
---|
0:01:46 | have high energy |
---|
0:01:47 | and menu oxygen what could have a low energy and it comes out automatically that |
---|
0:01:51 | we can derive the that the of the shape of the distribution is exactly like |
---|
0:01:55 | that few is kind is you many was low energy but i still is for |
---|
0:02:00 | the first m s is so general must be applicable to sound though places outside |
---|
0:02:04 | the physics |
---|
0:02:05 | and the so what whether to take economics was used really not physics and in |
---|
0:02:08 | the normal equations of motion or newton said that a in the economics the big |
---|
0:02:12 | statistical ensemble and that sounds in there that sensitive to resemble statistical physics and by |
---|
0:02:18 | serological so maybe one can transfer this ideas the difference that use the consumption economics |
---|
0:02:22 | and particular to this problem of in the what'd you |
---|
0:02:25 | she people have a lot and many people have a little now so we need |
---|
0:02:28 | actually looked at the data |
---|
0:02:30 | okay what you find as far as i gather is that this belt and gives |
---|
0:02:35 | distribution fits most of the data you okay but that there's a little piece in |
---|
0:02:40 | the upper tail |
---|
0:02:41 | that doesn't really fit yes absolutely that was very surprising finding i would have expected |
---|
0:02:46 | that well we'll distribution of if it by a very simple exponential functions one of |
---|
0:02:51 | the simple six is a mathematical functions |
---|
0:02:53 | and what the founder started looking at they to be downloaded data from i address |
---|
0:02:58 | the task tax data from your of sensors and other government agencies soda found is |
---|
0:03:03 | that most of this datum is starting from the bottom and map two hundred two |
---|
0:03:07 | hundred some sense out of the sounds and dollars per year and your income |
---|
0:03:11 | it is very will feel of exponential but then we found that the pool table |
---|
0:03:15 | to verify pale |
---|
0:03:18 | show for a different distribution which describe a power law subject by fitting the data |
---|
0:03:23 | and this is a my proposal one can describe the whole distribution by two different |
---|
0:03:27 | distinct mathematical functions an exponential for the majority a population say at the bottom also |
---|
0:03:33 | to say all the ipod lower class overlap about the throngs but for the upper |
---|
0:03:37 | class |
---|
0:03:37 | which is few percent one three percent of two three percent is described by powerful |
---|
0:03:43 | now one of the things that i think probably made our referees really attracted by |
---|
0:03:48 | your proposal is that you try to go a bit for than that and to |
---|
0:03:54 | suggest that perhaps this to distribution characterisation |
---|
0:04:00 | is it is an indication that there's something well okay is that there's a kind |
---|
0:04:05 | of what you talk about is a kind of i think with normal inequality and |
---|
0:04:10 | abnormal in yes |
---|
0:04:11 | yes absolutely so cycle that the nature of inequality |
---|
0:04:15 | because of the inequality exist and also sizes even and socially society where we assume |
---|
0:04:20 | that wasn't what is the last night less than in market but nevertheless so in |
---|
0:04:24 | order to some degree of an which is apparently inevitable and but question is by |
---|
0:04:30 | one last question what is kind of nature of the words with this view on |
---|
0:04:34 | angel |
---|
0:04:35 | so we make a mathematical conjecture that the exponential distribution that the two d was |
---|
0:04:39 | measured network but what we see on top of these naturalness what is your |
---|
0:04:44 | that will be something different would be not nature a lot of abnormal or something |
---|
0:04:48 | like that and once we once with the this the composition of the whole distributions |
---|
0:04:52 | the two classes then there are able to analyze the trends historical chance so what |
---|
0:04:57 | the found is that first of all the exponential what is extremely stable real data |
---|
0:05:01 | for ten twenty thirty years |
---|
0:05:03 | it is just the same meaning the scale changes because it has a scale which |
---|
0:05:07 | is that it was you come up with evolution continuum and audible or say double |
---|
0:05:10 | in twenty years i mean doors not adjusted for the shape of that is really |
---|
0:05:14 | she's distributions this exact the same so it's extremely stable but then the look and |
---|
0:05:18 | the share |
---|
0:05:19 | of total income that goes to the upper class upper-class me of the spiral on |
---|
0:05:23 | top of exponential and the father had it then a vehicle variable so basically it |
---|
0:05:28 | was same the level of maybe ten percent also one and two ninety five but |
---|
0:05:32 | from ninety five to two thousand example tomb almost twenty percent that was the bubble |
---|
0:05:37 | the dot com babble |
---|
0:05:39 | okay when the bubble collapse the should decrease dropped down by a factor of two |
---|
0:05:43 | then the house and babble |
---|
0:05:44 | babble doubled again extra more than double six to twenty percent and rocked again during |
---|
0:05:49 | the next christ assassinate and so crisis another indication is actually cover and median we |
---|
0:05:54 | have recovered image means a class is recovering |
---|
0:05:57 | we see missing become very strange situation and i to state a class is recovering |
---|
0:06:01 | what is global class |
---|
0:06:03 | is this is not recoverable but is so one of the things you're trying to |
---|
0:06:07 | do in this project no as far as i understand is to think about what |
---|
0:06:11 | kind of process could be driving the parallel corpus so you talk about maybe competitive |
---|
0:06:16 | markets to talk about campus production problem profits and cm primary s |
---|
0:06:23 | that's right the size so far this was a disk empirical observations knowledge we want |
---|
0:06:27 | to do this within this proposal is actually to develop some models |
---|
0:06:31 | to explain it all to follow the in n x the set or and one |
---|
0:06:35 | reading kind of input a conceptual question but was it is make use of relevant |
---|
0:06:39 | is that |
---|
0:06:42 | the share of the upper class discover uncommon to six plus was recorded at least |
---|
0:06:47 | sure and the question is where well it wasn't one and so for example is |
---|
0:06:52 | possible that the a this work was showgirls to such a degree |
---|
0:06:56 | the economic activity will essentially stop for the for the reason because the word classing |
---|
0:07:02 | blue loses position power so they can a byproduct so there's no point to produce |
---|
0:07:06 | a new product because it a proportion power |
---|
0:07:09 | and said that his different incarnations within this mc and cm by coming from economics |
---|
0:07:15 | background is me |
---|
0:07:16 | you're essentially talking about the kind of aggregate demand probably say that might arise because |
---|
0:07:21 | of rising inequality that that's a sort of drag one and demanded the way it |
---|
0:07:27 | shows up in your models |
---|
0:07:29 | is different than the way we do it in economics of so i'm interested in |
---|
0:07:33 | the dialogue that you been having i suppose with the contrast |
---|
0:07:37 | because use you saying a proposal that you join this the kind of physics group |
---|
0:07:41 | in two thousand |
---|
0:07:42 | but you also just told me now that you were thinking this way back as |
---|
0:07:46 | an undergraduate so tell me about that how you came in a kind of is |
---|
0:07:50 | i |
---|
0:07:51 | right okay so right so that's very interesting still save as a set in the |
---|
0:07:55 | i got this idea of source files and the right advisories the text with the |
---|
0:07:58 | force time that was actually ten volume words |
---|
0:08:01 | or of a theoretical physics bilateral relations that will five like in a bit always |
---|
0:08:05 | statistical physics so again this idea but the key but the kind of from the |
---|
0:08:08 | back of my mind because well i was added value that was i wanted to |
---|
0:08:11 | the would then i wouldn't the was it was important for you |
---|
0:08:14 | so anyway so i finish the wardens i get my p d and theoretical physics |
---|
0:08:19 | a get the if faculty positions contrastive might also always that the kind of is |
---|
0:08:23 | why around here two thousand actually that one reason |
---|
0:08:28 | i related to get tenure so to use a i difficulty of thirty coffee is |
---|
0:08:32 | gonna get my junior and then i actually decided this time actually well i and |
---|
0:08:36 | the you know present this idea but second reason was around your two thousand this |
---|
0:08:41 | on the physics one but start |
---|
0:08:43 | so it was is that you can the physics was invented by agents ten thirty |
---|
0:08:47 | of is so anyway this movement |
---|
0:08:49 | most of not by need by mike what physicists late nineties |
---|
0:08:53 | and i realise move with the start and so i by that you in it |
---|
0:08:57 | because if a bit longer to know somebody else will do so the agenda second |
---|
0:08:59 | if it is normal but this almost decreases |
---|
0:09:02 | no and since then a punishment yours paper about all statistical mechanics of money of |
---|
0:09:06 | this year two thousand and says that start to propagate this idea because it is |
---|
0:09:10 | not enough to write the paper to publish paper and the standard great your work |
---|
0:09:14 | to propagate this idea to what economics and social science |
---|
0:09:18 | and that the that's what it will it with a little you're in our decision |
---|
0:09:20 | here's a time trend this and i think and gradually making progress in propagation this |
---|
0:09:25 | a ds but not easy but for example router you paper two thousand nine with |
---|
0:09:29 | but are also available melodic one i missed us to probably but this by performing |
---|
0:09:34 | some residual the use of modern physics |
---|
0:09:37 | okay that also get to know duncan forty which is very unconventional one and this |
---|
0:09:43 | at in school and winners are trendy and one of great use of mine at |
---|
0:09:47 | and what and usual thing about that can use that he actually took a course |
---|
0:09:50 | of statistical physics |
---|
0:09:52 | he took physics course and then through the paper tonight just before i do my |
---|
0:09:57 | paper proposes similar ideas is possible solutions in economics because you statistical physics of the |
---|
0:10:03 | problem is mostly what i missed don't have this background they have no what they |
---|
0:10:06 | can statistical physics the make and they can mathematic or statistics but |
---|
0:10:10 | that's not the same thing statistical if we discuss the set of ideas like for |
---|
0:10:13 | example is and is just visual for gases so anyway so that's why develop and |
---|
0:10:18 | i like and communication and kind of kind of the synthesis of ideas it's a |
---|
0:10:22 | very non-zero process |
---|
0:10:25 | a request to size of different know which if i gather what you're saying one |
---|
0:10:28 | of the ideas of a being a nine a grantee is to have a larger |
---|
0:10:33 | audience in with some of this is about learning to talk to a condom as |
---|
0:10:36 | and having economist learn to talk to you absolutely beyond rates you're find a unique |
---|
0:10:41 | opportunity |
---|
0:10:42 | to ensure that |
---|
0:10:43 | with was for thinking a quantum is a general just anyone and makes a conan |
---|
0:10:47 | is thinking looking for new economic thinking so when the new ideas not everybody's all |
---|
0:10:52 | and so that's really a the main the main advantage well all of this is |
---|
0:10:57 | you know incredibly fast at me a new way of thinking about data and phenomenon |
---|
0:11:02 | the columns of in studying for centuries and i'm that new economic thinking is new |
---|
0:11:09 | thinking about the economy not necessarily back on a bus so from our way of |
---|
0:11:13 | thinking you and i met economist out and i welcome you |
---|
0:11:17 | the thank you very much |
---|