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as everyone in this audience is no data where spring came early this year

we have birds outside singing flowers are blooming

and i even had a few mosquito bites in early april

and this makes sense right animals and plants can take advantage of unseasonably warm weather

to get a head start on their breeding season

well what i wanna show you today is that weather conditions thousands of kilometres away

from here

can also exert an important influence on what's going on right in our own backyards

and the climate change could potentially disrupt these associations

so for my phd i study a small migratory songbird the american red start shown

on my slide

right starts migrate south during the wintertime to spend the winter in the tropics shown

in this graph in orange

and then in early spring then migrate up north to north america including ontario to

breed

no previous research has shown that the amount of rainfall on their tropical wintry habitats

is really important for this p c's

and that's because read starts feet exclusively on insects an insect abundance is tightly linked

to the amount of rainfall in these dried tropical have a task

so in years with more rainfall there's more food available for read starts are able

to fat not more quickly and depart on their northward migration earlier

so i was interested in whether these same patterns translate a onto the breeding grounds

in other words in years of greater rainfall down cell

do we see red start here in ontario sooner

and it turns that we do if you take a look at the figures i've

shown here you can see that in years of greater rainfall down so we have

read start arriving and breeding right here in ontario earlier

and that was promised i want i just like and how these associations could become

disrupted by climate change

and the problem is that climate scientists for predicting that weather conditions will continue to

get drier and drier down in the tropics

and so that means less food for these birds

later migration

and they'll be arriving here to breed later

and now that in combination with the fact that were likely to be seen earlier

and more springs

here in ontario means that these birds might not get here early enough

by the time there i've lay their eggs and their checks hatch they may have

missed that all important p in insect food abundance that happens here in early spring

that they rely on a defeat their checks

and this can lead to population declines

so i think that's to the research is really valuable because it's allowing scientist to

seen these connections between animal behaviors

and whether patterns all across the globe for these migratory species

and hopefully it'll allow us to best

anticipate the challenges that these bases will face with climate change so that we can

protect their most vulnerable populations and habitats

thank you