0:00:01 | they |
---|
0:00:09 | i think you very much |
---|
0:00:12 | so in this period this afternoon's conference a wanting to take this opportunity to talk |
---|
0:00:16 | with you a little bit about some new work doing and how it all started |
---|
0:00:20 | because i saw map |
---|
0:00:21 | the really freaked me out |
---|
0:00:23 | so we show you that map |
---|
0:00:25 | okay and i give you a little bit of background |
---|
0:00:27 | so we have just describe things off |
---|
0:00:29 | and explain i'm a behavioral economist here in jail and so one of the things |
---|
0:00:33 | i finding is how people make decisions over time so a how people think about |
---|
0:00:38 | the future and i |
---|
0:00:40 | people think about the future not influences their behavior with respect to say anything with |
---|
0:00:44 | respect to studying for your exams with respect to sticking to die with respect to |
---|
0:00:49 | quitting smoking |
---|
0:00:50 | now what about this not freak now and in particular so we just say this |
---|
0:00:55 | was the map was released by the european science foundation in your in the late |
---|
0:00:58 | nineteen nineties and in particular would freak me out |
---|
0:01:02 | was this area in blue only put it on a different map so it's a |
---|
0:01:05 | little bit easier to recognize a what this is |
---|
0:01:08 | is the map of northern europe and more really |
---|
0:01:11 | you know through if you're curve was that the european sounds when there's and released |
---|
0:01:15 | a report |
---|
0:01:16 | a number of kind of very are applicable researchers the claim that all the areas |
---|
0:01:21 | inside this blue region were utterly and totally future |
---|
0:01:27 | i would like i mean that simply given extreme statement |
---|
0:01:30 | and |
---|
0:01:32 | you know so i mean is an economist i'm someone used to for example making |
---|
0:01:36 | predictions the go horribly awry |
---|
0:01:38 | but this almost expecting you know so you know perhaps with the exception of iceland |
---|
0:01:44 | you can think about the current kind of your why you can think about the |
---|
0:01:48 | current european financial crisis and the other areas in this area actually are almost perfectly |
---|
0:01:54 | the countries that are doing the best |
---|
0:01:56 | okay and is an economist what i would say is it seems quite cynical these |
---|
0:01:59 | places future this i mean these places where all for a countries that are saving |
---|
0:02:04 | a tremendous amount of money households that are saving a tremendous amount of money |
---|
0:02:08 | countries that don't have problem with the dinner investing in tremendous amount and kind of |
---|
0:02:13 | public infrastructure and in the future they just seem to care about the future |
---|
0:02:17 | what i realise like to this confusion though is that in the freezer european science |
---|
0:02:23 | foundation that by kind of a superstar in imposed and all a they were talking |
---|
0:02:27 | about what an economist would mean when they say that places future list because this |
---|
0:02:31 | was a team of linguist |
---|
0:02:33 | and what we're say was that in fact not households in this region don't kind |
---|
0:02:38 | of channel about the future but that the languages in this region i don't really |
---|
0:02:42 | talk about the future in the same way that languages outside this area talk and |
---|
0:02:47 | what i really think about don't gonna tell you a little bit about right now |
---|
0:02:50 | if the connection between economics |
---|
0:02:52 | how you feel about the future and how you're language forces you to talk about |
---|
0:02:56 | the future |
---|
0:02:57 | but explain a little bit about what that means |
---|
0:03:00 | so for example you can probably tell i'm training and you know so growing up |
---|
0:03:05 | i realise that constraints families are different in many interesting ways what's a little bit |
---|
0:03:11 | subtle and then i didn't realise too much later is that the chinese language actually |
---|
0:03:15 | forces a chinese speakers to talk about families |
---|
0:03:19 | in subtly different ways to give you example suppose that |
---|
0:03:23 | you want your what your friends come to and say listen you know would you |
---|
0:03:27 | like think about for dinner |
---|
0:03:29 | if you were speak english for you with your friends you could say you know |
---|
0:03:32 | that sounds great really sorry that why have an uncle in town and you know |
---|
0:03:36 | tomorrow i'm gonna go out to dinner with it |
---|
0:03:39 | now we're speaking chinese your friends instead actually chinese the language would force to the |
---|
0:03:45 | include a lot more information than i didn't that i just say so for example |
---|
0:03:50 | there is no gentleman from uncle in chinese instead what we would have to specify |
---|
0:03:54 | what you would be forced by a language all your friends is whether or not |
---|
0:03:57 | this was an arg one your mother subassembly we're father son family and in fact |
---|
0:04:02 | before to say whether or not as with an occupied or a or by marriage |
---|
0:04:08 | so this is actually a very high fundamental characteristic of language and as you see |
---|
0:04:12 | a their the linguist problem jacobson express this past what is that languages differ essentially |
---|
0:04:17 | in what they must convey and not in what in a white so in this |
---|
0:04:22 | sense chinese is forcing you to say your friends about the structure of your family |
---|
0:04:28 | in which really was bigger you could very well think well they don't you know |
---|
0:04:32 | or it's not of their business |
---|
0:04:35 | now let's get back to host and all these kind of european linguists what these |
---|
0:04:39 | linguistic european science foundation discover with when they look at a languages across the globe |
---|
0:04:44 | a lot of global languages what they started was that languages differ in a very |
---|
0:04:49 | fundamental way in the way they force their speakers to talk about the future |
---|
0:04:54 | and they brought out languages in the tube of categorisation one week after week future |
---|
0:05:00 | time reference language or languages like chinese finishing german which don't |
---|
0:05:06 | four speakers in fact which allows speakers |
---|
0:05:09 | speak about the future and basically as if it's the present |
---|
0:05:13 | and other languages like english greedy time interaction vocal strong of your languages for speakers |
---|
0:05:19 | to grammatically realise order speakers in the future or something this really different price |
---|
0:05:25 | so for example what i was just telling you i will talk to my friends |
---|
0:05:29 | about taking my a lot forget or if i will say that in trying it |
---|
0:05:33 | would be very kind of common in very easy for me to just say okay |
---|
0:05:37 | what data tomorrow i with uncle |
---|
0:05:40 | where is to an english speaker i just sounds very strange that a lot of |
---|
0:05:44 | people real when i first of them is less because very strange because many people |
---|
0:05:48 | in this real probably know the english as a dramatic language and that english in |
---|
0:05:52 | german or close cousins and yet as you can see they find is the english |
---|
0:05:56 | and german find themselves on a sentence of this divine |
---|
0:06:00 | they probably speech german one when you think about this differences for example suppose i |
---|
0:06:04 | was gonna try to predict precipitation for tomorrow |
---|
0:06:08 | in german i can very easily say estimated more or morgan rate at s or |
---|
0:06:14 | and morgan is that scott and that sounds we into a single speaker because what |
---|
0:06:18 | i'm releasing is morning is cool or tomorrow entry |
---|
0:06:23 | okay instead of tomorrow will |
---|
0:06:27 | now i can have an effect my on your behavior tend this have an effect |
---|
0:06:32 | on your economics |
---|
0:06:33 | well |
---|
0:06:36 | i'd i didn't white you know a economist with the green the idea we do |
---|
0:06:40 | and that is quickly trying to spell myself of crazy idea by going in looking |
---|
0:06:44 | for as much data is possible around the world and trying to hit it is |
---|
0:06:47 | more like and let me just summarise and the hypothesis that i was testing for |
---|
0:06:52 | you |
---|
0:06:52 | that is can languages that speakers to approximately about the present in the future interesting |
---|
0:07:00 | speakers to feel similarly about the present and future a one like that important because |
---|
0:07:05 | that's true |
---|
0:07:06 | then speakers of those languages hundred time saving should have an easier time studying for |
---|
0:07:11 | exams should have an easier time kind of not of reading and for example should |
---|
0:07:16 | have an easier time quitting smoking we just say as a broad overview that's basically |
---|
0:07:21 | what i find all those patterns i just want to find it's paid in every |
---|
0:07:24 | major region world |
---|
0:07:26 | and the matter how harm trying hit this data to make it go away you |
---|
0:07:29 | can get this pattern to disappear but let's works relevant but these are always countries |
---|
0:07:34 | that what up front of you what is that all these are generally which kind |
---|
0:07:37 | of first world countries |
---|
0:07:40 | you know they tend to have open market the global democracy we were talking a |
---|
0:07:43 | little bit about european financial crisis you can all over there on the right these |
---|
0:07:48 | this is the average savings rate of contours over the last twenty five years and |
---|
0:07:51 | although we over there on the right is greece |
---|
0:07:54 | okay saving just a little bit over ten percent of their g p okay so |
---|
0:07:59 | you know that such as the price we know that they had a problem there |
---|
0:08:02 | is a little bit in like to the kind of mentioned in this audience but |
---|
0:08:05 | if you notice we're the united the where next |
---|
0:08:09 | okay now what i want you to notice that because a colour a i've colour |
---|
0:08:14 | the number of these bars in like those like blue bars of those countries which |
---|
0:08:19 | speak languages that don't make a strong distinction between the present and future |
---|
0:08:23 | okay and is what the system to make it easier to care about future in |
---|
0:08:27 | his yours that will see that |
---|
0:08:29 | very true now this is this only feature rich countries is only a feature of |
---|
0:08:34 | well developed economies no use a much larger set of contra small world and what |
---|
0:08:39 | you see this kind of a downward sloping line indicates that is that exact same |
---|
0:08:43 | patterns in the form |
---|
0:08:45 | basically every major region where if you speak the language that doesn't distinguish strongly between |
---|
0:08:50 | the future in the present you just |
---|
0:08:52 | save a lot more |
---|
0:08:54 | something else that this graph will come show you is something which provides an opportunity |
---|
0:09:00 | to hear this question much more and what is that what i did all these |
---|
0:09:05 | countries be seven countries that used in the middle of the screen user countries with |
---|
0:09:10 | multiple national languages |
---|
0:09:12 | and what supported about that is in many of these countries have multiple actual languages |
---|
0:09:17 | and you can literally trying to find families is basically next boredom each other these |
---|
0:09:22 | countries |
---|
0:09:23 | but speak different languages |
---|
0:09:26 | what is not gonna allows to do well that allows to look inside countries like |
---|
0:09:30 | switzerland where you see people speak german people speak french speaking people who speak at |
---|
0:09:35 | high speed be a family that's be problematic |
---|
0:09:38 | and countries like a totally different multiple well like nigeria where you'll find kind of |
---|
0:09:43 | how the speakers living right next to your room speakers living right next to impose |
---|
0:09:49 | these |
---|
0:09:50 | what am i going to do well he's and he's got the add one more |
---|
0:09:54 | you countries around will have disability and what i'm gonna try to do is do |
---|
0:09:58 | what epidemiologist two and find matched hers affair |
---|
0:10:01 | what exactly well would you could imagine is suppose i was standing up your own |
---|
0:10:06 | state with one point four billion buckets |
---|
0:10:09 | right and actual each of you right and export it would be these buckets based |
---|
0:10:13 | on what's we'll based on the country that your family was born at living in |
---|
0:10:18 | the steps in each of the head of household income we exactly in your household |
---|
0:10:23 | level of education merrill that it turns out in your or six different ways to |
---|
0:10:27 | be married |
---|
0:10:28 | a number of children you find in your household and finally in most powerfully what |
---|
0:10:33 | religion belong to seventy two different will lead |
---|
0:10:37 | i wanna buckets one point four billion so if you're lucky enough might find yourself |
---|
0:10:42 | model but in a bucket with they might one other factor right that might be |
---|
0:10:46 | looking for you have a lot talk about your melodic contour is family |
---|
0:10:49 | a likely for me as a researcher every now and then to fast one themselves |
---|
0:10:53 | in the same bucket but these languages the tree future differ |
---|
0:10:58 | so everything i'm gonna tell if you're and how is true even when we compare |
---|
0:11:02 | and those that are basically on every other dimension identical |
---|
0:11:06 | what we see what we see exactly what we predicted even if the data with |
---|
0:11:11 | that one point four billion but |
---|
0:11:13 | what is that a house all the languages that make a very we distinction between |
---|
0:11:19 | the present in the future are forty percent more likely to save at any given |
---|
0:11:23 | year remember that is already holding the rank |
---|
0:11:26 | they're pointed by the time they were tired and you related twenty five percent |
---|
0:11:31 | they're gonna be twenty four percent less likely to report having smoked intensively that's like |
---|
0:11:36 | more than a pack a day for your and in a given point |
---|
0:11:40 | they're going and not just kind of monetary behaviors but i think about how behaviors |
---|
0:11:45 | they're gonna be thirteen percent like a less likely be medically obese |
---|
0:11:49 | they're gonna be twenty four percent of slot and almost every dimension they're gonna be |
---|
0:11:54 | in measurably better help than the long so groups for a long capacity a walking |
---|
0:11:59 | speed all of these measures of you can imagine cumulative the your cumulative ability to |
---|
0:12:04 | kind of channel that future self |
---|
0:12:06 | i better exercising restraint from smoking all of that was thinking to add up even |
---|
0:12:11 | when tearing families |
---|
0:12:14 | okay |
---|
0:12:16 | i i'd like to leave you with i'd like to leave you with a with |
---|
0:12:19 | this |
---|
0:12:21 | first of all thank you very interesting second of all |
---|
0:12:24 | this is research that's really only just getting off the ground right now kind of |
---|
0:12:28 | a team of linguists kind of be an economist and number of psychologist you're young |
---|
0:12:33 | women experiments to try and identify the psychological mechanism by which these kinds of relationships |
---|
0:12:39 | working and i by all of them i website kind of al |
---|
0:12:43 | keep up to date with what i think is really exciting project investigating what economists |
---|
0:12:47 | have a linguist |
---|
0:12:49 | thank you very much |
---|
0:12:54 | it |
---|