0:00:00you
0:00:02the other
0:00:13hello everyone
0:00:14my research deals with back heuristics of penguins and statistics
0:00:21if a cute little paying when you have about a twenty percent chance of surviving
0:00:25your first and then about and eighty percent chance of surviving each after that to
0:00:30in your about eleven
0:00:32you start a family when you're about three and you have to make sure agreed
0:00:36in a home regularly or your family runaway was still start today
0:00:42you have unpredictable weather apprentices unpredictable food supply to contend with and researches are really
0:00:49mean interested to know how you call
0:00:51why
0:00:52because you aren't operators to and what happens to you gives us a window into
0:00:58what is happening twelve marine ecosystems as it's trying to cope with a change in
0:01:04climate and if is where the statistics comes in
0:01:07it is the tool i use to extract out anything like stories from pain wouldn't
0:01:13data
0:01:14i use a truly remarkable dataset from phillip island in victoria of fifty four and
0:01:21half a dozen due to penguins and they use a probability based statistical to call
0:01:27the method of maximum likelihood and i don't penguin survival with climate an auction variables
0:01:34the techniques i use a novel
0:01:38and i can now models of bible for any wildlife species
0:01:44so some pain when was that well rising temperatures is and strong when events do
0:01:49affecting survival we kind of expected that about me the expects its first able it
0:01:55i salute me matches what time of year these events happened and secondly
0:02:01these events don't actually always have a detrimental effect if it can be beneficial as
0:02:06well and that it and most intriguing that happens to be some evidence of lag
0:02:12effect for example strong winds blowing in the winter for the breeding season have a
0:02:19positive affect
0:02:21on chicks the bible
0:02:23have
0:02:24the following year
0:02:26well a possible mechanism is that means of low fit into the feeding grounds and
0:02:32the parents a healthier and so they can have help future
0:02:36and there's so much more to look at
0:02:38a temperature rainfall patterns of current ice melting thousands of kilometres away and most importantly
0:02:45marin productivity because it tells us how much food is available
0:02:50so
0:02:51the curious mix of penguins and statistics
0:02:54can teachers so much about out cherished real environment and i well let's hope that
0:03:00ruffle wild adventures in a healthy environment because there is no doubt if their environment
0:03:05as healthy so is out planets thank you