they
i think you very much
so in this period this afternoon's conference a wanting to take this opportunity to talk
with you a little bit about some new work doing and how it all started
because i saw map
the really freaked me out
so we show you that map
okay and i give you a little bit of background
so we have just describe things off
and explain i'm a behavioral economist here in jail and so one of the things
i finding is how people make decisions over time so a how people think about
the future and i
people think about the future not influences their behavior with respect to say anything with
respect to studying for your exams with respect to sticking to die with respect to
quitting smoking
now what about this not freak now and in particular so we just say this
was the map was released by the european science foundation in your in the late
nineteen nineties and in particular would freak me out
was this area in blue only put it on a different map so it's a
little bit easier to recognize a what this is
is the map of northern europe and more really
you know through if you're curve was that the european sounds when there's and released
a report
a number of kind of very are applicable researchers the claim that all the areas
inside this blue region were utterly and totally future
i would like i mean that simply given extreme statement
and
you know so i mean is an economist i'm someone used to for example making
predictions the go horribly awry
but this almost expecting you know so you know perhaps with the exception of iceland
you can think about the current kind of your why you can think about the
current european financial crisis and the other areas in this area actually are almost perfectly
the countries that are doing the best
okay and is an economist what i would say is it seems quite cynical these
places future this i mean these places where all for a countries that are saving
a tremendous amount of money households that are saving a tremendous amount of money
countries that don't have problem with the dinner investing in tremendous amount and kind of
public infrastructure and in the future they just seem to care about the future
what i realise like to this confusion though is that in the freezer european science
foundation that by kind of a superstar in imposed and all a they were talking
about what an economist would mean when they say that places future list because this
was a team of linguist
and what we're say was that in fact not households in this region don't kind
of channel about the future but that the languages in this region i don't really
talk about the future in the same way that languages outside this area talk and
what i really think about don't gonna tell you a little bit about right now
if the connection between economics
how you feel about the future and how you're language forces you to talk about
the future
but explain a little bit about what that means
so for example you can probably tell i'm training and you know so growing up
i realise that constraints families are different in many interesting ways what's a little bit
subtle and then i didn't realise too much later is that the chinese language actually
forces a chinese speakers to talk about families
in subtly different ways to give you example suppose that
you want your what your friends come to and say listen you know would you
like think about for dinner
if you were speak english for you with your friends you could say you know
that sounds great really sorry that why have an uncle in town and you know
tomorrow i'm gonna go out to dinner with it
now we're speaking chinese your friends instead actually chinese the language would force to the
include a lot more information than i didn't that i just say so for example
there is no gentleman from uncle in chinese instead what we would have to specify
what you would be forced by a language all your friends is whether or not
this was an arg one your mother subassembly we're father son family and in fact
before to say whether or not as with an occupied or a or by marriage
so this is actually a very high fundamental characteristic of language and as you see
a their the linguist problem jacobson express this past what is that languages differ essentially
in what they must convey and not in what in a white so in this
sense chinese is forcing you to say your friends about the structure of your family
in which really was bigger you could very well think well they don't you know
or it's not of their business
now let's get back to host and all these kind of european linguists what these
linguistic european science foundation discover with when they look at a languages across the globe
a lot of global languages what they started was that languages differ in a very
fundamental way in the way they force their speakers to talk about the future
and they brought out languages in the tube of categorisation one week after week future
time reference language or languages like chinese finishing german which don't
four speakers in fact which allows speakers
speak about the future and basically as if it's the present
and other languages like english greedy time interaction vocal strong of your languages for speakers
to grammatically realise order speakers in the future or something this really different price
so for example what i was just telling you i will talk to my friends
about taking my a lot forget or if i will say that in trying it
would be very kind of common in very easy for me to just say okay
what data tomorrow i with uncle
where is to an english speaker i just sounds very strange that a lot of
people real when i first of them is less because very strange because many people
in this real probably know the english as a dramatic language and that english in
german or close cousins and yet as you can see they find is the english
and german find themselves on a sentence of this divine
they probably speech german one when you think about this differences for example suppose i
was gonna try to predict precipitation for tomorrow
in german i can very easily say estimated more or morgan rate at s or
and morgan is that scott and that sounds we into a single speaker because what
i'm releasing is morning is cool or tomorrow entry
okay instead of tomorrow will
now i can have an effect my on your behavior tend this have an effect
on your economics
well
i'd i didn't white you know a economist with the green the idea we do
and that is quickly trying to spell myself of crazy idea by going in looking
for as much data is possible around the world and trying to hit it is
more like and let me just summarise and the hypothesis that i was testing for
you
that is can languages that speakers to approximately about the present in the future interesting
speakers to feel similarly about the present and future a one like that important because
that's true
then speakers of those languages hundred time saving should have an easier time studying for
exams should have an easier time kind of not of reading and for example should
have an easier time quitting smoking we just say as a broad overview that's basically
what i find all those patterns i just want to find it's paid in every
major region world
and the matter how harm trying hit this data to make it go away you
can get this pattern to disappear but let's works relevant but these are always countries
that what up front of you what is that all these are generally which kind
of first world countries
you know they tend to have open market the global democracy we were talking a
little bit about european financial crisis you can all over there on the right these
this is the average savings rate of contours over the last twenty five years and
although we over there on the right is greece
okay saving just a little bit over ten percent of their g p okay so
you know that such as the price we know that they had a problem there
is a little bit in like to the kind of mentioned in this audience but
if you notice we're the united the where next
okay now what i want you to notice that because a colour a i've colour
the number of these bars in like those like blue bars of those countries which
speak languages that don't make a strong distinction between the present and future
okay and is what the system to make it easier to care about future in
his yours that will see that
very true now this is this only feature rich countries is only a feature of
well developed economies no use a much larger set of contra small world and what
you see this kind of a downward sloping line indicates that is that exact same
patterns in the form
basically every major region where if you speak the language that doesn't distinguish strongly between
the future in the present you just
save a lot more
something else that this graph will come show you is something which provides an opportunity
to hear this question much more and what is that what i did all these
countries be seven countries that used in the middle of the screen user countries with
multiple national languages
and what supported about that is in many of these countries have multiple actual languages
and you can literally trying to find families is basically next boredom each other these
countries
but speak different languages
what is not gonna allows to do well that allows to look inside countries like
switzerland where you see people speak german people speak french speaking people who speak at
high speed be a family that's be problematic
and countries like a totally different multiple well like nigeria where you'll find kind of
how the speakers living right next to your room speakers living right next to impose
these
what am i going to do well he's and he's got the add one more
you countries around will have disability and what i'm gonna try to do is do
what epidemiologist two and find matched hers affair
what exactly well would you could imagine is suppose i was standing up your own
state with one point four billion buckets
right and actual each of you right and export it would be these buckets based
on what's we'll based on the country that your family was born at living in
the steps in each of the head of household income we exactly in your household
level of education merrill that it turns out in your or six different ways to
be married
a number of children you find in your household and finally in most powerfully what
religion belong to seventy two different will lead
i wanna buckets one point four billion so if you're lucky enough might find yourself
model but in a bucket with they might one other factor right that might be
looking for you have a lot talk about your melodic contour is family
a likely for me as a researcher every now and then to fast one themselves
in the same bucket but these languages the tree future differ
so everything i'm gonna tell if you're and how is true even when we compare
and those that are basically on every other dimension identical
what we see what we see exactly what we predicted even if the data with
that one point four billion but
what is that a house all the languages that make a very we distinction between
the present in the future are forty percent more likely to save at any given
year remember that is already holding the rank
they're pointed by the time they were tired and you related twenty five percent
they're gonna be twenty four percent less likely to report having smoked intensively that's like
more than a pack a day for your and in a given point
they're going and not just kind of monetary behaviors but i think about how behaviors
they're gonna be thirteen percent like a less likely be medically obese
they're gonna be twenty four percent of slot and almost every dimension they're gonna be
in measurably better help than the long so groups for a long capacity a walking
speed all of these measures of you can imagine cumulative the your cumulative ability to
kind of channel that future self
i better exercising restraint from smoking all of that was thinking to add up even
when tearing families
okay
i i'd like to leave you with i'd like to leave you with a with
this
first of all thank you very interesting second of all
this is research that's really only just getting off the ground right now kind of
a team of linguists kind of be an economist and number of psychologist you're young
women experiments to try and identify the psychological mechanism by which these kinds of relationships
working and i by all of them i website kind of al
keep up to date with what i think is really exciting project investigating what economists
have a linguist
thank you very much
it