you

the other

hello everyone

my research deals with back heuristics of penguins and statistics

if a cute little paying when you have about a twenty percent chance of surviving

your first and then about and eighty percent chance of surviving each after that to

in your about eleven

you start a family when you're about three and you have to make sure agreed

in a home regularly or your family runaway was still start today

you have unpredictable weather apprentices unpredictable food supply to contend with and researches are really

mean interested to know how you call

why

because you aren't operators to and what happens to you gives us a window into

what is happening twelve marine ecosystems as it's trying to cope with a change in

climate and if is where the statistics comes in

it is the tool i use to extract out anything like stories from pain wouldn't

data

i use a truly remarkable dataset from phillip island in victoria of fifty four and

half a dozen due to penguins and they use a probability based statistical to call

the method of maximum likelihood and i don't penguin survival with climate an auction variables

the techniques i use a novel

and i can now models of bible for any wildlife species

so some pain when was that well rising temperatures is and strong when events do

affecting survival we kind of expected that about me the expects its first able it

i salute me matches what time of year these events happened and secondly

these events don't actually always have a detrimental effect if it can be beneficial as

well and that it and most intriguing that happens to be some evidence of lag

effect for example strong winds blowing in the winter for the breeding season have a

positive affect

on chicks the bible

have

the following year

well a possible mechanism is that means of low fit into the feeding grounds and

the parents a healthier and so they can have help future

and there's so much more to look at

a temperature rainfall patterns of current ice melting thousands of kilometres away and most importantly

marin productivity because it tells us how much food is available

so

the curious mix of penguins and statistics

can teachers so much about out cherished real environment and i well let's hope that

ruffle wild adventures in a healthy environment because there is no doubt if their environment

as healthy so is out planets thank you